6. Coming up this week...

In the political economy in the week ahead...

Monday

Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters is expected to hold a post-cabinet news conference around 4pm.

Parliament's Justice Select Committee is holding a hearing on the End of Life Choice Bill from 9 am to 4.30 pm in Parliament, with remote hearings in Rotorua and Auckland.

Tuesday

StatsNZ is scheduled to report building consents figures for June at 10.45 am.

Parliament resumes at 2pm for the second week of a four-week long sitting session (not three weeks as I wrote last Monday) and the political parties will hold their weekly caucus meetings around 10 am.

The Appropriation (2018/19 Estimates) Bill (the Budget 2018 legislation) is scheduled to be debated through its committee stages in Parliament this week.

ANZ is scheduled to release the results of its Roy Morgan business confidence survey for July at 1pm.

The Bank of Japan will publish the results of its latest monthly meeting. This will be closely-watched after reports last week it may signal the end of its quantitative easing programme forced long term bond yields higher temporarily. The Bank of Japan has been buying 10 year government bonds there to keep their interest rates around 0 percent, which means the central bank now owns 40 percent of Japanese government bonds.

Wednesday

Stats NZ is scheduled to publish its labour market figures at 10.45, which include employment, unemployment, under-employment and wage growth figures. Economists expect jobs growth to dip to around 0.4-0.5 percent for the June quarter from 0.6 percent in the March quarter. That would match growth in the size of the available labour force through natural population growth and migration. Therefore unemployment is expected to be stable around 4.4 percent, assuming an unchanged participation rate.

The main focus will be on wage growth, given the quarter includes the April 1 increase in the minimum wage to $16.50 an hour from $15.75 an hour. This is the first of four increases scheduled to go to $20 an hour under the Labour-New Zealand First coalition agreement. Growth in the Labour Cost Index measure of private sector wages is expected to double to around 0.6 percent in the June quarter from the March quarter's 0.3 percent, which would increase the annual rate from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent. That previous 1.9 percent was boosted by a 0.2 percent increase from the pay equity deal for aged care workers.

Currently the Reserve Bank is not expected to hike interest rates until the second half of 2019. Faster-than-expected wage growth on Tuesday may shift that view forward, or vice-versa.

Parliament's Finance and Expenditure Select Committee will hold a public hearing at 11.15 am on the report of the Controller and Auditor-General on Treasury's He Tirohanga Mokopuna: 2016 Statement on the Long-Term Fiscal Position from 2016.

Parliament's Finance and Expenditure Select Committee will hold a public hearing at 11.15 am on the Report of the Controller and Auditor-General on Inland Revenue Department's Procurement for the Business Transformation programme & Briefing on the progress of Inland Revenue Department's Business Transformation programme

Thursday

The US Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision early on Thursday morning New Zealand time. Most expect it to hold the Fed Funds Rate at around 2 percent, but that it would continue to indicate two more hikes later in 2018, despite comments from US President Donald Trump that he was unhappy with further rate hikes.

The Bank of England is expected to hike its official rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent late on Thursday night.

Friday

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics is scheduled to release jobs data for July on Friday US time. The US economy, which grew at an annualised rate of 4.1 percent in the June quarter, is expected to have generated 195,000 new jobs.